...and you thought Tysons had traffic now.

[HAULN-SS]

He's right, the foreclosure doesn't have an impact on it. It's the re-sale after the foreclosure, and how long that takes that has the impact. And if it's only one or two foreclosures it has a very minimal impact, as foreclosures aren't used as comps.

First of all, his analogy is totally wrong because of the fact that car pricing and real estate pricing have nothing to do with each other.

Secondly, while a foreclosure is not typically used in a comp it can and will affect prices when it gets sold (assuming its, you know, comparable). Not to mention the fact that right now the foreclosure are the fallout from a negative price trend.

I disagree with your last line. The people that are foreclosing are foreclosing because they can't afford their new mortgage payments. People don't walk away from a house that they CAN afford just because it's depreciated some. A guy whose house lost 50k in the last two years, but had a fixed rate mortgage for an amount he *can* afford isn't going anywhere. Most foreclosures are happening to foreigners who didnt know what they were getting into, and literally can't afford to stay in their house because the payments jumped, not because of a negative price trend.

[G.Irish]

He's right, the foreclosure doesn't have an impact on it. It's the re-sale after the foreclosure, and how long that takes that has the impact. And if it's only one or two foreclosures it has a very minimal impact, as foreclosures aren't used as comps.

First of all, his analogy is totally wrong because of the fact that car pricing and real estate pricing have nothing to do with each other.

Secondly, while a foreclosure is not typically used in a comp it can and will affect prices when it gets sold (assuming its, you know, comparable). Not to mention the fact that right now the foreclosure are the fallout from a negative price trend.

I disagree with your last line. The people that are foreclosing are foreclosing because they can't afford their new mortgage payments. People don't walk away from a house that they CAN afford just because it's depreciated some. A guy whose house lost 50k in the last two years, but had a fixed rate mortgage for an amount he *can* afford isn't going anywhere. Most foreclosures are happening to foreigners who didnt know what they were getting into, and literally can't afford to stay in their house because the payments jumped, not because of a negative price trend.

Depends on how you look at it. If your rate reset and now the payment is too high the preferable option would be to sell the house no? Or refinance maybe. Can't really do either if the house is losing a bunch of value...

And I doubt that most of the foreclosures are foreigners. There are plenty of stupid Americans to go around.

[HAULN-SS]

I'm not arguing prices haven't fallen. Sucks to be the guy that needs to refinance that bought in Oct '05. No Doubt. They just haven't fallen as much as the media would like you to believe. Whether you look at means or median, "northern virginia" is down at most 8% YOY. Factor out PWC and Manassas area, and it's going to be even less. Now, on half a million dollars, 8% is still a lot of money, I'm just saying don't expect to go buy that house for 280K anytime soon.

[HAULN-SS]

here's the average sale price in the region that includes DC, NVAR, Mongomery and PG counties, going all the way back to May '03:

Month Avg Price YoY % Change
May-03 $330,045.17 n/a
Jun-03 $343,964.44 n/a
Jul-03 $345,723.56 n/a
Aug-03 $351,641.04 n/a
Sep-03 $332,852.99 n/a
Oct-03 $329,104.97 n/a
Nov-03 $332,377.90 n/a
Dec-03 $358,614.77 n/a
Jan-04 $354,080.22 n/a
Feb-04 $334,469.19 n/a
Mar-04 $362,471.02 n/a
Apr-04 $377,103.08 n/a
May-04 $395,689.27 +19.89%
Jun-04 $424,225.97 +23.33%
Jul-04 $413,288.99 +19.54%
Aug-04 $407,310.21 +15.83%
Sep-04 $390,186.91 +17.22%
Oct-04 $400,701.74 +21.75%
Nov-04 $406,262.30 +22.23%
Dec-04 $425,403.47 +18.62%
Jan-05 $425,542.56 +20.18%
Feb-05 $423,249.94 +26.54%
Mar-05 $451,514.96 +24.57%
Apr-05 $463,073.25 +22.80%
May-05 $481,874.34 +21.78%
Jun-05 $499,335.96 +17.71%
Jul-05 $507,687.83 +22.84%
Aug-05 $500,200.91 +22.81%
Sep-05 $479,284.28 +22.83%
Oct-05 $475,719.19 +18.72%
Nov-05 $484,231.68 +19.19%
Dec-05 $498,947.66 +17.29%
Jan-06 $474,025.94 +11.39%
Feb-06 $457,846.50 +8.17%
Mar-06 $473,831.96 +4.94%
Apr-06 $485,092.00 +4.75%
May-06 $502,266.59 +4.23%
Jun-06 $526,289.51 +5.40%
Jul-06 $494,752.14 -2.55%
Aug-06 $488,295.20 -2.38%
Sep-06 $481,219.26 +0.40%
Oct-06 $468,896.24 -1.43%
Nov-06 $474,793.31 -1.95%
Dec-06 $486,526.42 -2.49%
Jan-07 $485,819.23 +2.49%
Feb-07 $475,357.06 +3.82%
Mar-07 $496,296.61 +4.74%
Apr-07 $497,259.10 +2.51%
May-07 $512,761.04 +2.09%
Jun-07 $533,119.96 +1.30%
Jul-07 $534,567.25 +8.05%
Aug-07 $518,478.28 +6.18%
Sep-07 $488,763.37 +1.57%
Oct-07 $481,689.56 +2.73%
Nov-07 $485,569.77 +2.27%

Just some interesting data I found. It'd look better in a graph, but I dindt have time to make one and post it.

[.RJ]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/18/news/economy/housing_starts.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007121808">http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/18/news/ec ... 2007121808</a><!-- m -->

Let them

[Apoc]

I wonder what the rates will be in April '11 when I have to refinance.

[.RJ]

Gonna get hosed Just like your Audi!

[Apoc]

Not if there's a recession coming!

[.RJ]

Recession... is that what happens when your turbos blow up?

[ViPER1313]

I used to love recess - dodge ball was awesome. CSC really needs to offer it.

[Ginger]

Recession... is that what happens when your turbos blow up?

No no, that's remission.

[HAULN-SS]

Repression is what you do to the memories of the turbos in their splendor, after they blow'd up

[Ginger]

And remission is what you go into after your fix of BoostRot is gone.

[.RJ]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/08/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2008010818">http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/08/news/ec ... 2008010818</a><!-- m -->

[Apoc]

This is the "housing boom/bust" thread right?

Interesting consequence...

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24023831/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24023831/</a><!-- m -->

[John]

There was another Reuters article earlier this week that focused on the McMansion fallout and foreclosure spike - content was solely focused on Loudoun County.

[HAULN-SS]

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943">http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.c ... mber=12943</a><!-- m -->

Index up 8 points from January. Good signs in business leads to good signs all around, right? I have seen some articles about a mid-year 08 bounce, or at least a less-drop.

[WRXtranceformed]

The market likely won't rebound fully in most areas until early to mid 2009. That's what the high-up execs in my old company and in a lot of other builders were saying.

[Mike]

i believe the market will be rebounding the day i can afford a house in an area that i want to live in. people are retiring, dying, etc... folks our age can't afford to move in to their homes. if the market still doesn't drop a good bit, we're going to see some major neighborhood age lines rewritten.

[Apoc]

That's a funny definition of rebounding. Corrected, maybe... but rebounding? Also, most people your age end up buying somewhere they don't really want to live because it's what they can afford. It's just the way housing has always and will always be. My parents did it 30 years ago and we did it 5 years ago. That's where the term starter home came from.

Housing within a 20 miles radius of the city isn't likely to correct most people under 40 into the market because there is SO much government salaries and defense spending keeping it afloat.